It’s all going to plan
We’ve been saying for a while now that the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) monetary policy of controlled easing of the economy, bringing everything down gently to a soft landing is the right approach and its paying off.
We’re in the final stages being over half way through the easing cycle with inflation back under control and home mortgage rates a full 2% below the peaks seen in 22/23.
With the OCR likely to be reduced by 0.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, it’s not necessarily a direct route to the bottom as interest rate volatility can flow into home mortgage rates however given time and playing the long game we’re expecting the OCR to ease three more times throughout the year to around 3.25% and potentially a fourth to settle at 3%.
So we’re moving in the right direction with calls to cut harder and faster and bring the OCR to a terminal rate of 3% and get the economy moving again easier and quicker, then we’re also in a position to move quickly into economic stimulus territory of under 3% if geopolitical factors, Trumpian economics and trade wars bite us and raise it slightly again in a couple of years if need be when the economy is fully recovered.
So with Wednesdays Feb 19th OCR announcement likely to be the last large cut at 0.5% and mortgage interest rates to follow, we’re on the road to finally getting some stimulus back in the economy which will flow on through to business confidence and house prices turning to an upward trend again nice and steadily.
Click here to check out the Good Returns website article for more on that.