Welcome to Q4 24

Written By Kim Manunui

As we trail out of this rather forgettable year with just 3 months to go, Q4 24 is a time to transition from ‘survive to 25’ to ‘thrive in 25’ so that we start the new year set up for growth.

With economic indicators all pointing to medium we’re expecting to make steady progress rather than launching forward as there are still a whole lot of things that need to come right which they are, namely –

  • Net immigration is easing off the back of record highs in 2023

  • Inflation is easing, currently at 3.3% for the June quarter on its way to a target 2% with the next announcement for Sept quarter on 16th Oct

  • The Official Cash Rate ( OCR ) dropped in Aug for the first time in 41 months to 5.25% with another announcement due 2pm this Wed 9th Oct, we’re expecting it to reduce again but will see what transpires

A few other factors at play include -

Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) is teetering around 0.00% with slight unders and overs quarter on quarter with a fairly flat expectation to June 25

Unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in June quarter up 0.2% on the March quarter

Wage growth for the year to June quarter at 7.1% helping to ease the cost of living crisis

We all know it’s been a tough year all round with a bunch of long standing businesses closing for one reason or another and commodity prices affected by shifts in markets and overseas competition but we’re a resilient lot us Kiwis and we find our way through, keeping agile while maintaining infrastructure for future growth is key.

House prices nationally have taken a further 0.5% decrease in September for the 7th month in a row and down a total 4.7% from Feb 24, they’re now down about 18% below the peak of the post-Covid boom but still about 16% above the March 2020 pre-Covid levels. While the August OCR reduction and subsequent easing of interest rates have had no affect yet, general consensus is we’ve found the bottom or near to it as there are flickers of growth in some areas. Click on the following link to the 3rd Oct Corelogic report and Home Value Index ( HVI ) for more on that >>> Rate cuts haven’t pumped up house prices yet | CoreLogic New Zealand

Oh and new build consents nationally for the year ending Jun 24 at 33,627 are down 24% on the YE Jun 23 with non-residential building consent work valued at $9.1b down 9.6% on the Jun 23 figures.

So all in all it’s a pretty flat report, on a brighter note, we ARE expecting things to get better, as Adrian Orr, Reserve Bank Governor stated at the Aug OCR announcement ‘its darkest before dawn and we’re at dawn’ so coming from the horse’s mouth we’re taking that as the worst is officially behind us and we can crack on with the expectation of economic growth going forward.

For what it’s worth we’re about as unexciting as everyone else when you compare articles from the likes of the Australian Financial Review, London Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg … they’re all singing from the same songbook so we’re not alone in this mess in the global village.

So right now, at Infinance, we’re here to help, whether it’s to –

  • Restructure lending for cashflow easing to get you through these tough times

  • Provide funding for growth or equity release for capital expenditure or working capital

  • Transactional purchases from vehicles and equipment to residential or investment property to commercial applications and underwriting risk for loss prevention

Give us a call, drop us an email or enquire online and we can work through a solution to suit your requirements.

Kim Manunui

Hi, I’m Kim and I work with a great team to help individuals, as well as small and not so small businesses get their message, product and services to the world using digital media and creating wonderful websites that don’t cost the earth.

I was born in Canada, and grew up around Vancouver and the mountains of British Columbia. My love of pristine environments led me to New Zealand and eventually to the mountains, lakes and rivers of the central North Island which is home. My family’s heritage is here, and it’s from here that Korio traverses the planet.

The digital world is never static and neither are we.

And I say ‘we’ because I work with an awesome group of talented people who I gather together as required to complete a project.  Whatever your business, not-for-profit or individual needs are we gather the best team to get the job done.

Collaboratively we are creative, share sustainable values and work hard for great outcomes because that’s the buzz of satisfaction that drives us.

If you have an audience and market to reach, we can make that happen. Creative design, words that work and smart behind the scenes stuff that cuts through the online noise. We’ll design your website and then build it. We’ll manage the content as well as all your hosting needs. We can handle your online advertising so you get noticed,
and we’ll manage your social media presence so you get the clicks, likes and engagement to grow your business. All within the budget you set, because none of this needs to cost the earth.  And the job doesn’t stop when your website goes live. We are your virtual business partner.

https://www.korio.co.nz
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